The effect of A* as a predictor of university performance

The effect of A* as a predictor of university performance

December 2015


In summer 2010, the A* grade at A Level was awarded for the first time. This grade was introduced to help higher education institutions differentiate between the highest achieving candidates. Here we examine the effect of achieving A* grades in different A Level subjects on the probability of being awarded a First class degree from a Russell Group university and show that the A* is indeed a good predictor of achieving a top university degree.

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To see the predicted probability of achieving a First class university degree, please select from the following options. In all cases, the results assume that the student is achieving a strong average result on their A Levels (e.g. AAB), A*s only in the selected A Level subject type, and that they attended a Comprehensive school.

A Level subject type University type University subject

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Research Matters

Research Matters 22 cover

Research Matters is our free biannual publication which allows us to share our assessment research, in a range of fields, with the wider assessment community.